Could Kansas Be the Sleeper Swing State in Waiting?

A new poll points to a surprisingly tight race in Kansas—a state where Democrats have not carried at the presidential level in 60 years— even as analysts remain skeptical that the state will be competitive in next week’s election.
While Democrats have, for years now, been hopeful that demographic changes in Texas would be slowly turning that red state blue — or at least purple — there are signs that Kansas might be trending in a similar direction on its own.
Kansas has been viewed as a solidly Republican state for decades, with conservative suburbs and ruby-red rural strongholds canceling the more Democratic-leaning urban areas like Kansas City, Topeka and Lawrence. But Democrats have seen signs that the Sunflower State could be shifting — slowly — in their direction, even before the latest poll showed Harris Kamala Harris within a handful of points of Donald Trump. Still, Trump is expected to hold onto the state in November, even if his margin shrinks from four years earlier.
The poll, conducted by the Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs, showed Trump leading Harris by five points among voters who are registered and likely to vote this year. Among that group, 48 percent said they are planning to vote for Trump, and 43 percent expect they’ll back Kamala Harris.
Among all Kansas voters, including those who aren’t registered or plan to vote, Trump leads by a more substantive 11 points (50 percent to 39 percent), still a smaller margin than his 2020 victory in the State, when he won by nearly 15 points.
Although Kansas still leans Republican, Democrats are hoping to build upon Biden’s 2020 performance in the state —among the strongest Democratic performances there in several cycles.
He lost the state to Trump by 14.6 points (56.1 percent to 41.5 percent). In 2016, Trump won Kansas by more than 20 points. Mitt Romney carried it by nearly 22 points in 2012. Former President Barack Obama put up a stronger performance in 2008, losing by 14.9 points. But former President George W. Bush won the state by 25 points and 21 points in 2004 and 2000, respectively.
Neal Allen, a professor of political science at Wichita State University, told Newsweek it would take a major Democratic over-performance for Harris to flip Kansas this year—a prospect that seems unlikely with national margins showing a neck-and-neck race.
“Kansas is only competitive in a Democratic landslide in 2024,” he said. “Harris’ gains nationally with highly educated white voters translate well in Kansas, but a Democratic victory is very unlikely.”
Although Kansas is unlikely to flip this year, it has trended toward Democrats compared to the national median over the past decade, due in part to backlash against tax cuts instituted by former GOP Governor Sam Brownback, as well as Democrats’ support for abortion rights and public education, he said.
Democrats have made their gains mostly with educated voters in suburban areas. Kansas has fairly high rates of college education levels and high school completion, and the party’s ability to continue building support among these coalitions could be key in a handful of state legislative races that could determine whether Republicans have a supermajority next year, he said.
“Kansas might seem like a heavily rural state if you drive through it, but most of its population is in in urban and suburban areas. That’s where most of the growth is,” Allen said.
Kansas’ population is mostly concentrated in a few areas. For example, more than one in every five Kansas resident lives in Johnson County, a fast-growing suburban county outside of Kansas City where that moved toward Democrats relatively quickly over the past decade.
Johnson County backed Romney by 18 points in 2012, but Biden won it by more than eight points in 2020.
Sedgwick County, home to Wichita, has slowly become more competitive, but still leans toward Republicans. Romney carried it by about 20 points in 2012, but Trump won it by fewer than 12 points in 2020.
Bob Beatty, the chair of Washburn University’s political science department, told Newsweek that Harris could get closer than Biden did in 2020, as abortion messaging appears to be resonating with Kansans.
“In terms of the poll, if margin of error goes toward Trump then the poll would show close to a double digit lead, and I think that might be going on,” he said. “Of course anything is possible in a democracy where people vote.”
But Democrats can only make Kansas competitive if they manage to perform better among rural voters, according to Allen. Although most Kansans don’t live in these areas, statewide victories for Democrats are unlikely as long as they continue receiving less than 20 percent support in the state’s vast rural counties.
Democrats have already seen some downballot success in Kansas.
In 2022, Governor Laura Kelly won reelection. Republicans hoped to win the governorship back in an environment that was more conducive to the GOP than 2018, when Kelly was first elected. But she still managed to beat back a challenge from her Republican opponent, former Attorney General Derek Schmidt, by just over two points.
Kansas also voted to protect legal abortion in the state that year. Voters shot down a ballot measure that would have removed protections for reproductive rights from the state constitution by a wide margin, 59-41.
Meanwhile, at the Congressional level, Representative Sharice Davids flipped blue a House seat based around Johnson County in 2018 and has held onto it each election since then, winning by 12 points in 2022 despite it being redrawn to be an easier flip for Republicans.
A strong Harris performance would likely bode well for Davids’ reelection chances this year, Allen said.
Other pollsters haven’t produced surveys on Kansas since Harris became the Democratic nominee—likely in part due to the expectation Trump will easily carry it again in November—so there are no points of reference to compare this latest poll. The Cook Political Report classifies the state as “Safe Republican.”
The GOP’s grip on Kansas has slipped a bit over recent years in part because Trump is unpopular in the Kansas City suburbs, Beatty said. These shifts would have to continue over future cycles for the state to become more competitive.
“There are many moderate or traditional Republicans in Johnson County,” he added. “And they are not Trump fans.”